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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.